Year-End Shopping Decoded

GLOBAL Q4 2026

Black Friday and Cyber 6 no longer follow a single predictable playbook. Shoppers are moving through Q4 in more complex ways—responding to promotions shifting between channels, discovering brands across retailers, and showing up at key moments with varying levels of intent.

Q4 Macro Trends

Q4 YoY Retail Performance, 2025 vs 2024

More US shoppers browsed, but fewer converted. US retail traffic increased by 3% in Q4 indicating continued shopper engagement year over year. However, sales declined by 7% and revenue fell by 2%, largely driven by a 10% decrease in conversion rate.

UNITED STATES

Q4 YoY Monthly Retail Performance, 2025 vs 2024

US retail softness persisted across Q4. US retail sales and revenue declined year over year in October, November, and December.

UNITED STATES

Q4 YoY Retail Performance, 2025 vs 2024

Traffic growth powered EMEA's Q4 retail performance.

EMEA

EMEA retail delivered positive Q4 growth, with sales up 4% and revenue up 2% year over year. Growth was primarily driven by stronger traffic, which increased 6% year over year.

EMEA growth remained positive, but momentum slowed at the end of Q4

Q4 YoY Retail Performance, 2025 vs 2024

Smaller baskets weighed on Japan's Q4 revenue. Japan retail sales were broadly stable in Q4, declining just 1% year over year, while traffic remained flat and conversion rates were slightly lower.

JAPAN

Q4 YoY Monthly Retail Performance, 2025 vs 2024

Japan's revenue remained under pressure throughout Q4.

JAPAN

Where Cyber 6 grew around the world

Black Friday dominated US Cyber 6 activity. US retail activity accelerated throughout November before reaching its highest levels on Black Friday. Compared with the first four weeks of October, Black Friday generated the highest uplifts of 225% in revenue, 205% in sales, and 101% in traffic, reinforcing its position as the most important shopping day of the season.

Peak uplift on Black Friday

Traffic (+101%)

EMEA

Black Friday anchored EMEA Cyber 6 activity. EMEA retail activity built steadily throughout November and reached its highest levels on Black Friday. Compared with the first four weeks of October, Black Friday generated peak uplifts of 174% in revenue, 136% in sales, and 62% in traffic.

Peak uplift on Black Friday

Revenue (+174%)

JAPAN

Japan's strongest Cyber 6 activity peaked before Cyber Monday. Japan retail activity strengthened throughout the season, with peak performance occurring before Cyber Monday. Compared with the first four weeks of October, peak Cyber 6 activity drove uplifts of 47% in revenue, 31% in sales, and 16% in traffic.

Traffic (+16%)

US Cyber 6 traffic rose, but sales softened

Cyber 6 YoY Retail Performance Thursday to Tuesday, 2025 vs 2024. US retail traffic increased by 3% during Cyber 6, suggesting continued shopper interest. However, sales declined by 7% as conversion rate fell by 10%.

UNITED STATES

Smaller US retailers outperformed during Cyber 6

While overall US retail performance softened during Cyber 6, smaller retailers delivered stronger results.

US Retail Cyber 6 YoY Sales and Traffic by Partner Size, Thursday to Tuesday, 2025 vs 2024

Small retailers saw traffic increase by 15% and sales grow by 5% year over year, outperforming medium and large retailers.

EMEA

Traffic gains lifted EMEA Cyber 6 growth. EMEA retail showed positive momentum during Cyber 6, with sales up 5% and revenue up 3% year over year. Growth was primarily driven by higher shopper traffic which increased 7% year over year.

JAPAN

More orders, but smaller baskets weighed on revenue. Japan retail sales increased by 11% during Cyber 6, supported by slightly higher traffic (+1%) and stronger conversion rates (+10%).

Black Friday participation edged up in Japan

The share of retailers with at least +20% sales uplift on Black Friday compared to the first week of November increased slightly in Japan versus 2024.

Black Friday and Cyber Monday drive a surge in new buyers

New buyer acquisition at US retailers surged during key holiday shopping moments, reaching +261% on Black Friday and +225% on Cyber Monday versus the first four weeks of October 2025.

Daily Indexed New Buyers

EMEA

New buyer acquisition at retailers across Europe rose sharply during the Black Friday period, peaking at +189% and +177% versus the first four weeks of October 2025.

JAPAN

Japan's new buyer acquisition doubled in late November.

How discounts shape Q4

Black Friday 2025, Average Increase in Unit Sales, Discounted vs Non-Discounted. Discounts gave shoppers an extra reason to buy. Discounted products saw substantial Black Friday demand, but non-discounted products also benefited from elevated shopping activity.

Black Friday 2025, Average Price Decrease for Discounted Products

Black Friday 2025, Average Increase in Unit Sales, Discounted vs Non-Discounted. Promotions were widespread across European categories.

JAPAN

Japan focused discounts on Fashion and Beauty.

The categories that drove growth

US shoppers prioritized self-care and gifting on Black Friday. Top US retail categories delivered mixed Black Friday performance year over year, with growth concentrated in wellbeing and gifting-related categories.

UNITED STATES

YoY Sales for top Verticals on Black Friday 2025

Home and Fashion led EMEA Black Friday growth.

YoY Sales for top Verticals on Black Friday 2025

Marketplace shopping fueled Japan's Black Friday growth. Japan's leading retail categories posted positive Black Friday growth, with performance concentrated in a few key segments.

YoY Sales for top Verticals on Black Friday 2025

US travel audiences converted at higher rates during Cyber 6

US travelers converted at a 23% rate during Cyber 6 2025, compared with 14% across all retail visitors. The 8-point conversion advantage suggests travel bookers represent a highly engaged audience during major shopping events.

vs. all visitors

European travelers were more likely to convert during Cyber 6

European travelers converted at a 16% rate during Cyber 6 2025, compared with 12% across all retail visitors.

vs. all visitors

Japanese travelers converted above average during Cyber 6

Japanese travelers converted at an 18% rate during Cyber 6 2025, compared with 12% across all retail visitors.

vs. all visitors

The path from discovery to conversion

Share of Mobile Sales Cyber 6-2025 vs 2024

Mobile captured a larger share of US Cyber 6 sales.

Share of Mobile Sales Cyber 6-2025 vs 2024

Mobile gained share during Cyber 6 in EMEA. Mobile's share of Cyber 6 sales in EMEA increased from 37% in 2024 to 39% in 2025.

Mobile became the dominant Cyber 6 channel in Japan

Multi-retailer browsing triples brand discovery in the US

When shopping a category, consumers discover 3 times more brands by browsing across multiple retailers than by staying within a single retailer.

Cross-retailer browsing boosts brand discovery in Europe

When shopping a category, consumers discover 1.5 times more brands by browsing across multiple retailers than by staying within a single retailer.

Multi-retailer shoppers in Japan discover nearly 2x as many brands

When shopping a category, consumers discover ~2 times more brands by browsing across multiple retailers than by staying within a single retailer.

US Retailers-Time from first interaction to purchase

US Black Friday shopping starts as early as September.

EU Retailers - Time from first interaction to purchase

Europe's longest purchase journeys start 2 months early.

Japan Retailers - Time from first interaction to purchase

Japan's purchase journeys are the longest among markets.

US in-store revenue gained

In-store revenue share among omnichannel retailers increased by 2 percentage points during Black Friday weekend compared with 2024.

Online shopping gained share

In-store revenue share declined by 4 percentage points during Black Friday weekend compared with the prior year.

Where marketers can win

Win the race to consideration

Start campaigns earlier than ever. Shoppers often began researching weeks, and sometimes months before making a purchase.

Build demand beyond discounts

Compete on value, not price cuts.

Meet shoppers wherever they buy

Build a holistic web and app retargeting strategy. Show up across multiple retail environments. Think beyond channel silos.

Activate high-intent audiences strategically

The strongest purchase activity came from shoppers already demonstrating buying signals.