2020 Rebound

Consumer Behavior, Sentiment, and Trends

At Criteo, we don’t have a crystal ball, but we do have data.

What we’ve seen in our ongoing analysis of market trends is that once the coronavirus outbreak began dominating news headlines, consumers quickly responded by adopting new habits and product preferences to meet their changing needs. These behaviors give us insight into what, where, and why they’ll buy in the coming months.

Brands have had to play catch-up. Some trends may be permanent and others may normalize in time. But, right now, we can estimate that the next year or two will require new strategies as marketers adapt to the new consumer. The lockdowns may be over, but the behaviors consumers have learned—and the ways they’ve purchased and adapted—will last for much longer.

Inside The 2020 Rebound Report, we’ll break down
what marketers need to know about how consumers
are adapting this year, what they’re buying, and which
marketing strategies are proving to be most effective.

Table of Contents

The Age of Discovery & Redesigned Lifestyles
5 Top Trends in the Rebound Economy
Connecting in the New Normal(s)

A Tale of Two Consumers

The coronavirus pandemic created a new normal.

In this reality, people don’t leave the house without a face covering, and they try to stay three meters away from strangers. As cities scale back formal distancing measures and businesses begin to reopen, we expect behaviors like these to continue. Significant numbers of consumers will be cautious for months to come, while others will start to resume their lifestyles with some modifications.

Going the Distance

People are ready to get out of confinement, but many are worried about asymptomatic cases and transmission. In the absence of mandated social distancing policies, careful consumers will choose to keep space between themselves and others.

A survey by Coresight found that:

2/3
of US consumers plan to avoid at least one type of public space after lockdowns end
45%
Criteo’s consumer sentiment survey, Peak to Recovery,
conducted in May, surveyed 10,000+ shoppers worldwide
1
and found that in-store comfort levels vary:
plan to avoid shopping centers and malls specifically

9%
of respondents in the US and the UK feel comfortable going to a shopping mall right away

55% United

42%
United
✘✁✂✄☎✆

45%
Australia

of Australian respondents say they’re already comfortable with going to shopping malls

56%
United
States

Crowds No More

Our research shows that as the prospect of crowded spaces increases,
1
consumers’ comfort levels decrease.

Respondents who say they’ll feel comfortable going to restaurants in one to five months:

in South Korea

in France

in India

CROWDS NO MORE

Respondents who say they’ll feel comfortable going to a bar in one to five months:

62%

59%

55%

52%

51%

50%

49%

45%

45%

42%

CROWDS NO MORE

Respondents who say they’ll feel comfortable going to
a large sports event or concert in one to five months:

in Italy

in Germany

!

in France

in Australia

38%
38%

in South Korea

in India

36%

in Brazil

in the UK

The Age of Discovery

During the height of lockdowns,
internet traffic rose by up to
35%, according to data from
Netscout.

Social distancing prompted more consumers than ever to turn to online channels to find what they needed. The vast majority say they plan to keep purchasing from the new stores they discovered.

1
Here’s what our survey found:

For marketers, this could be an opportunity to connect with new audiences that are looking for your products and create loyal new customers.

34%
Australia

37%
United

United
✝✞✟✠✡☛☞

39%
United
States

of respondents
shopped from some
online stores for the
first time

41%
Australia

36%
United
✌✍✎✏✑✒✓

42%
United
States

said they bought
from the online
versions of physical
stores they usually
purchase from

82%
United
✔✕✖✗✙✚✛

77%
Australia

83%
United
States

are likely to keep
purchasing from
the new stores they
discovered

Redesigned Lifestyles

Of the respondents in our Peak to Recovery study:

said that the peak crisis period was a good opportunity to make changes to their lifestyles and habits.

5 Top Trends in the Rebound Economy

Based on our ongoing analysis of
transaction-level data and consumer
research, we’ve unpacked five major
consumer behavior trends that have
significant implications for marketers.

1 Do-It-Yourself Mentality

2 Remote Work

3 Distance Learning

4 Cooking at Home

5 Home Exercise

#1 Do-It-Yourself Mentality

Whether due to nostalgia for simpler times or a pull-yourself-up-by-your-bootstraps state of mind, Criteo data shows a self-sufficient attitude is permeating popular culture:

Knitting

We Are Knitters, a Spain-based online seller of knitting supplies, saw sales spike globally 235% since March, with New York (+300%) and Massachusetts (+375%) boasting the most yarn enthusiasts.

20%
Australia

24%
UK

21%
US

#1 Do-It-Yourself Mentality

Baking

Aided by a wealth of suggested recipes, news articles, and foodie blogs, baking is a wholesome activity that can bring on feelings of comfort and abundance. According to Google Trends, searches for banana bread went up 54%
worldwide in March.

Criteo data shows that in early April, sales of Baking items, like Batter &
Cocoa Mixes, Bread Crumbs, Pie & Pastry Fillings, and Cookie Decorating
Kits, increased in:

+273%
Australia

+289%
Spain

+789%
Italy

Daily sales stayed well above January levels throughout the end of May.

#1 Do-It-Yourself Mentality

Gardening

During World War II, 20 million Americans planted victory gardens which produced 40% of all fruits and vegetables consumed in the US during that time. According to online retailer Ozon, demand for seeds rose by 20-30% year-over-year in March.

Our consumer study revealed that many people found
their green thumbs in recent weeks and plan to
continue gardening:

28%
Australia

25%
US

#1 Do-It-Yourself Mentality

Puzzle-Solving

In the last half of March, US puzzle maker Ravensburger saw sales jump by 370% year-over-year. The coronavirus-induced surge in puzzle demand means that in 2020, Ravensburger has been selling 20 puzzles per minute in North America.

Criteo data shows that jigsaw puzzles started rising globally in mid-March. In the
30-day period from March 27 to April 26, sales were up in:

Across every sector of life, consumers demonstrated they were able to adjust to new conditions and loaded up on items that helped them make the most of being stuck indoors.

Houses got makeovers, apartments got rearranged. Dens, dining areas, and bedrooms became mixed-use spaces that could easily morph into the home office, classroom, restaurant, or gym.

#2 Remote Work

Like fax machines and typewriters, the standard five-days-a-week office job may become a relic. According to the Federal Reserve, the share of the US labor force that works from home has tripled in the last 15 years. The coronavirus pandemic has only accelerated the trend. Shopify and Twitter recently told employees that they can work from home permanently.

Our survey found that:

19%
Australians

20%
Britons

26%
Americans

began working from home significantly for the first time in recent months, and they plan to continue. These figures don’t include
those who already worked from home on a regular basis.

#2 Remote Work

In addition to minimizing the spread of communicable diseases, companies have started to understand other benefits of remote work:

Productivity & Mental Health

48%

48%

of respondents feel more productive when working outside of the office

60%

feel that it has a positive effect on their mental health

#2 Remote Work

Real Estate

69%
of companies
now plan to
shrink their
office footprint

[CoreNet Global, April 2020]

Commuting Time & Expenses

Employees who work at home half the time would save an estimated $2,500 - $6,500 per year on things like gas, parking, food, and daycare, and the equivalent of 11 days
per year in time they would have spent commuting.

[Global Workplace Analytics, March 2020]

Here’s what our data has found so far:

The past several months proved that many businesses can succeed when employees don’t come into the office every day. All of
the potential time, energy, and money saved is making companies reconsider how and where work is done. This will likely trigger a cascade effect in new types of office products and purchases.

#3 Distance Learning

These days, the kids are at home when they’re supposed to be in school. UNESCO reported that due to school closures, more than 1.2 billion children in 186 countries are not in their classrooms. Many university classes will go virtual in the fall. Parents and students are preparing:

Gap years

1/6
students who’d planned to attend college full time in the fall no longer plan to

[Art & Science, April 2020]

+180%

in online searches for the question What is a gap year? during the last week of April.

[Google]

#3 Distance Learning

Home School

Our Peak to Recovery survey shows that on average
globally, about one in 10 parents believe they’ll continue
home schooling their kids :

7%
Australia

9%
UK

Considering there were 56.6 million elementary, middle, and high school students in the US alone in 2019 according to the National Center for Education Statistics, the need for alternative ways to educate a sizeable portion of the global population is growing—and so is the need for products that help students learn, play, and create.

#3 Distance Learning

Learning & Childcare Product Trends

Educational Software & Hardware

In the 28 days from April 13 to May 10, sales of Educational
Software increased in:

Products that help students stay connected, comfortable, and efficient, including Wireless Access Points, Audio & Video Cable Adapters, USB & FireWire Hubs, laptops, and monitors, also saw
high sales.

#4 Cooking at Home

Most restaurants have remained closed except for takeout and delivery in recent months, putting a new emphasis on eating at home. OpenTable estimates that one-quarter of American restaurants will go out of business due to coronavirus quarantines. Restaurant reservations were down 95% on May 13 compared to the same day in 2019.

In our survey:

52%
United
States

of respondents said that even after the peak of the Covid-19
crisis, they are likely to continue cooking at home.

Even as restaurant dining rooms start to reopen, the habits formed around cooking and grocery shopping during lockdowns may be here to stay.

#4 Cooking at Home

Online Grocery

Companies built for home grocery delivery, like FreshDirect,
Instacart, Peapod, and Shipt, saw a sharp rise in demand:

42%
almost double the 22% in March 2018.

When it comes to purchasing groceries online, our study found that:

[Geekwire, 2020]
17%
Australia

24%
United

United
Kingdom

24%
United
States

of respondents plan to keep doing so in
the future.

#4 Cooking at Home

Grocery Apps

Grocery app downloads jumped significantly from February to
mid-March, including:

+218%
Instacart

[Statista, March 2020]

+160%
Walmart Grocery

+241%
Shipt

63%

Online meal kit sales grew:

in the week ending April 15, compared to the previous year.

Meal Kits

#4 Cooking at Home

Grocery Product Trends

Pasta Sauce, Cooking Oils, & Cheese

Throughout a peak period of the crisis in the US,
March 15-April 12, Americans stocked up on ingredients
for quick, easy meals:

+635%

+635%
Pasta sauce

Cooking Oils, Cheese, and Nut Butters, as well as more niche items like Tofu, Soy & Vegetarian products, also made it into
shopping carts.

#4 Cooking at Home

Noodles, Soups, & Sauces

Pasta & Noodles sales rose:

Soups & Broths sales rose:

from March 15 - April 12, compared to the average in January. Throughout the APAC region, flavorings like Seasonings & Spices and Condiments & Sauces were also popular.

#4 Cooking at Home

Grocery Product Trends

Breads, Pastries, & Chocolate

Breads & Pastries sales rose:

Germany

from March 15-April 12, compared to the average in January.

2 Candy & Chocolate also saw spikes in :

• 256%
  France

• 302%
  Italy

+496%
UK

#5 Home Exercise

Gyms are starting to reopen, but even with machines spaced six feet apart, it may be a long road before consumers feel comfortable around all that heavy breathing.

Our survey found that:

40%
Australia

of respondents plan to keep exercising at home in the months ahead.

#5 Home Exercise

During the period when gyms were shuttered, consumers found plenty
of alternative ways to stay fit:

Stationary Bikes

Peloton makes internet-connected bikes that cost more than $2000 and has seen its stock rise 86% since March when over 23,000 people joined its streaming online classes.

Exercise Apps

According to Apptopia data, an app called Home Workout - No Equipments has been downloaded more than 10 million times globally since mid-March.

#5 Home Exercise

On-Demand Workouts

A video called How to Adjust Training & Diet for Coronavirus + At-Home Workouts got over 1.6 million views on YouTube in less than two months.

Along with personal training content that’s easily accessible and often free, Criteo data shows that many households are now well-equipped for fitness.

#5 Home Exercise

Fitness Product Trends

Exercise Bands

In the spirit of solo home workout routines, these stretchy pieces of rubber provide a lot of muscle-developing resistance in confined spaces.

Exercise Band sales rose:

Poland

US

+86%

+504%

Australia

+488%

UK

+725%

Germany

compared to the first four weeks of the year. Also easy to store and right-sized for small spaces, exercise benches and exercise balls trended up in March as well.

#5 Home Exercise

Sporting Goods on Wheels

Warmer weather is on the horizon, and consumers are heading outdoors with products that help them maintain social distancing. Compared to the average in January, the four-week period from April 13 to May 10 saw sales increase for a variety of on-the-move products:

+386%

Inline & Roller Skates:

US

+142%

+647%

+563%

Netherlands

Brazil

+54%

Australia

Skateboarding:

• 62%

+127%

+493%

Netherlands

+612%

Russia

+230%

Germany

Connecting in the New Normal(s)

There’ll be no quick return to the way things were before coronavirus, but
there will be many new normals. People are learning to cope with trade-offs
and adaptations that touch every aspect of life.

Regional differences will be very significant as marketers start to build campaigns—towns, cities, states, countries, and continents may all start to diverge when it comes to both attitudes and shopping patterns.

The most important part of marketing, however, will remain the same: finding the right audience and creating a message that resonates.