Holiday Report:

Moments, Trends, Research

Executive Summary

In 2017, Black Friday and Cyber Monday shattered sales records, making for one of the most profitable holiday seasons ever. But the biggest story of last year starred a retail industry permanently transformed by shoppers able to connect to great products whenever they want, wherever they are — in the speed of an instant.

This holiday, make more instants that matter.

With the rise of on-the-go lifestyles, every moment counts. Your shoppers aren’t just going to your store or browsing on your site. They’re using search engines, reading reviews, researching products while they’re in another store. Omnishopping is the new normal. More than 3 out of 4 shoppers engage in online to offline or offline to online shopping around the world. It’s impossible to know where your shoppers are going to be next.

Criteo works with a growing network of over 18,000 brands and retailers across the globe and sees 1.4B shoppers each month and 650B in commerce sales each year. Supported by a massive amount of shopper data, our analysis reveals how people shopped in 2017, and what to look forward to in 2018.

1. Building more data will mean stronger customer relationships.

In 2018, we expect to see more of the same. And with the help of this guide, you’ll be ready for the biggest holiday season yet.

Add in knowledgeable salespeople, apps optimized for shopping, and faster delivery options, and it’s clear that a reimagined retail experience is what’s winning shoppers’ hearts and minds.

In 2017, companies optimized brick-and-mortar locations with magic mirrors and virtual-reality rollercoasters. They offered collectible, unique merchandise and thought about how to make their store displays more Instagrammable.

Based on what we saw in 2017, here’s what we expect to see in 2018:

1. Mobile becomes the go-to purchase channel.
2. The top holiday gifts dominate – and it’s not always the big players.
3. Black Friday will keep growing, and more shoppers will go online than ever.
4. The best holiday marketing will be based on instants.

Attraction

Holiday browsing and buying will start earlier than ever.

With social media, pop culture, and even the daily news making it easy to keep an eye on gift trends throughout the year, holiday shopping has expanded beyond traditional timeframes.

Last year, Walmart, Best Buy, and others started promoting deals in early November instead of waiting until the official Black Friday. That prompted a cascade effect that we’re sure will continue in 2018. Shoppers will be looking for deals not just in November, but in October, too.

This is contributing to a bigger trend: a rolling month of deals, instead of a specific day. While we might think of Cyber Monday as the penultimate day for online shopping, a great deal will attract shoppers to your site earlier in the season.

Triumph

Black Friday will keep growing, and more shoppers will go online than ever.

Adventure

Mobile becomes the go-to purchase channel.

The top holiday gifts dominate – and it’s not always the big players.

Determination

Cyber Week II will be the best hidden opportunity.
Building more data will mean stronger customer relationships.

Holiday browsing and buying will start earlier than ever.

In 2018, we expect to see a Cyber Week effect across retail categories. That’s because, in 2017, people converted as deals were triggered, led by days like Thanksgiving (+25% YoY), Black Friday (+13% YoY), Cyber Monday (+13% YoY), and what we’ll call “Black Saturday” (+12% YoY).

Compared to the average in October, transactions increased by a whopping +227% on Black Friday in 2017. The uplift was only +189% in 2016, showing that the event is spreading fast, globally.

So this year, don’t expect your shoppers to restrict their shopping to the big days anymore. They’ll be looking for deals all month long – and maybe earlier. Build the anticipation, and you’ll attract shoppers who are ready to purchase as soon as the deal goes live.

Criteo Customer Acquisition

Attract shoppers to your products by showing them offers based on how they search, what they want, and when they want it. Use Criteo Customer Acquisition early in the holiday season and start reaching new customers just as they start to think about giving gifts to their friends and loved ones.

Mobile becomes the go-to purchase channel.

In 2017, more than 40% of all online retail sales in November and December happened on mobile phones.

It’s impossible to guess just how mobile this season will be, but get ready for more than half of all holiday purchases to occur on smartphones. Make sure your website and product pages are more responsive than ever. Test them for speed, user experience, and ease of checkout.

Shopping apps also tend to generate higher conversion rates—in some countries 3 to 5 times higher than on mobile web. Globally, the share of in-app transactions grew from 31% in Q4 2016 to 46% in Q4 2017, indicating an overall uplift of 48% YoY.

Joy can happen in an instant.

Top holiday gifts dominate—and it’s not always the big players.

Last year, we noticed three interesting consumer categories surging during the holiday season: old school toys with new twists, the latest consumer electronics, and products that were made famous on YouTube.

Our insights below are informed by search volume across retailer websites. Here’s what we found:

• Our Generation, a more affordable character doll, also showed steady interest across the season.
• UHD 4K TVs, Smart TVs, tv equipment, and voice speakers dominated consumer electronics, with voice speakers reigning as the top electronic search term from Black Friday onwards.
• Fingerlings & LOL Surprise toys showed surprising growth in our top 1000 retail terms last year, too, which was a byproduct of virality and digital engagement rather than big marketing campaigns.

Black Friday will keep growing, and more shoppers will go online than ever.

When we think of Black Friday, we think of shoppers running through aisles in search of the best deals before someone gets to them first.

But ecommerce and omnishopping have fundamentally changed the nature of retail and led to new patterns in retail seasonality.

Case in point: All across the globe, Black Friday — a traditionally American phenomenon — has become as big as Cyber Week II (the week between Christmas and New Year’s), when shoppers are motivated by year-end deals and gift cards.

Our data from last year shows that the specific day isn’t nearly as important as the deals you trigger.

Cyber Week II will be the best hidden opportunity.

While no one could argue the impact of Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and Cyber Week, our data from Holiday 2017 revealed an unexpected opportunity in the US and UK — the week between Christmas and New Year’s, aka “Cyber Week II”. The UK for example saw a 28% increase in AOV (Average Order Value) between December 26th (Boxing Day) and December 30th.

December 25th marks the beginning of Cyber Week II, the period when shoppers flood back in market to take advantage of online deals. Gift cards in hand, they’re ready to treat themselves in the run-up to New Year’s Day.

Building more data will mean stronger customer relationships.

If our research shows us anything, it’s that you can never tell where shoppers are going to buy. Only your data can.

Last year, our Shopper Story 2017 found that, in most countries, shoppers value both online and retail experiences. In fact, 62% of shoppers said that they use their phones while they’re in-store.

With mobile dominating the holiday season, it’s imperative for marketers to think about how to better connect with shoppers as they move across devices and channels.